Finance
Aggregation theory, AI infrastructure as a structural trade, public thesis tracker.
Articles (1)
Thesis Tracker
Live theses I'm operating against. Updated when something materially changes.
Aggregation Theory → SaaS Platform Consolidation
ActiveDemand-side aggregators win categories with high user fragmentation. Watching the AI dev tools and CRM verticals.
AI Infrastructure Layer > Application Layer
ActiveMargins migrate to whoever controls compute, networking, and memory. Apps are commoditized by foundation models.
HBM Scarcity as Structural Constraint
ActiveHigh-bandwidth memory remains the binding constraint on training throughput. Early MU thesis still holds.
2028: Red + Blue Coalition Against Tech
WatchingBipartisan antitrust posture against frontier AI labs and platform aggregators is a tail risk worth tracking.
Private Credit Replacing Public Markets
WatchingBDC and direct-lending growth as banks pull back; durable structural shift, not a cycle.
Trade Log
Public accountability journal. Tracks the trades, not the size.
| Date | Instrument | Thesis | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-12 | LITE 2026 calls | Optical interconnect demand inflection — Coherent + Lumentum captures Nvidia spend | Open |
| 2025-07-21 | MU shares | HBM scarcity, Micron is third source behind Hynix + Samsung | Open · +28% |
| 2025-04-03 | SPY puts (hedge) | Tariff overhang on Q2 prints; small portfolio hedge | Closed · −12% (hedge cost) |
| 2024-11-08 | PLTR shares | Forward-deployed engineering model is the right shape for AI consulting at scale | Closed · +94% |
Personal accountability journal — not investment advice.